Monday, May 27, 2024
HomeUncategorizedWhen arm ecosystem does get there

When arm ecosystem does get there

7nm EPYC

Exiting canada goose outlet nyc 2019, I think hoping for 20% is a bit much, but certainly possible. I guess something like 16 or 18 and if they were to reach something like this. Amd by jan/feb 2020 could reach $35/share. We could even see 40 or more depending on how well they attack mobile or if ryzen 3 can come out before holiday. Also if they can manage to canada goose outlet toronto address not be extinct canada goose outlet in toronto in the gpu space for gamers, would be nice and if they can manage to take something small like 2 5% of gpu data center share, it canada goose outlet in new york would help push the price higher, but ceteris paribus, $35 is reasonable if they were to exit 19 with 16 18% unit share and that imo, is not a stretch with intel continued blunder. Even exiting with 15% is good enough canada goose outlet sale considering the market itself is expanding and they were anticipating canada goose outlet edmonton 10+, maybe 11, all well before intel confirming their fuck up, 2x so at least 15 is expected and safe. 20, possible, but you would want to be conservative when making these estimates because it a huge deal when calculating the profits and thus the price.The hardest thing imo is trying to come up with a fair multiple for amd if they were to take 15, or 17% unit share. Surely there is a premium because canada goose outlet jackets of the fact this pos small nobody of a company suddenly in a year or two ripped double digit share from intel, the behemoth of a company most important market. I expect 30 trailing and low 20 forward, but I would not be shocked to canada goose parka outlet uk see amd holding a 35 or 40 trailing with a 30 canada goose factory outlet toronto location forward. What would be nice for amd to do, is to grow their revenue and canada goose outlet website legit you can see them doing that by lowering canada goose outlet uk their prices on cpu and canada goose outlet germany mobile. I expect the launch sometime in 2h, but I really hope GF don delay and get it out before intel. Would be jaw dropping. Seeing consumers pick a ryzen because it is best cpu on the market.With 20+% x86 share, AMD will make loads of money and will never have to sacrifice R on their CPU or GPU segments.Intel will be burdened by the CapEx for their fabs (if they dont divest that is) and will face an increasing problem of funding that capex (while maintaining dividends and buybacks).AMD will be like Nvidia but with an x86 license.How do you value a fundamental restructuring of the x86 processor market? The monopoly has canada goose discount uk ended and a duopoly started with AMD being fabless and Intelwith a semiconductor design house and $10B+ annual Capex fab business.IMO AMD stock will keep rising. Its forward looking by 6 months, so its almost pricing in Rome launch at this point.By the time this rolls around Intel will also have probably recovered from their fumble, or at least will have had a chance to make things right. I still think the era canada goose vest outlet of intel dominance in fabs is over.when talking about longer term trends (as this won come true for another 2 3 years) remember that the ecosystem of computing is changing at the same time, with ARM (and RISC architectures in general) gaining momentum in hardware performance and software ecosystem (although hardware performance and software ecosystem are really two sides of the same coin).In 5 10 years X86 might be considered a fading technology (although will still obviously be very prevalent), with RISC and ARM rising up. At that point AMD will have to compete with a whole lot more players than just Intel on the CPU front and Nvidia canada goose outlet mississauga on the GPU canada goose outlet london front.When arm ecosystem does get there… Samsung will likely vertically integrate, Apple will vertically integrate (if they aren already by dumping intel), Qcom might vertically integrate into consumer products. This will put huge pressure on OEMs and we might see more vertical integration. AMD might need to go canada goose outlet uk sale vertical as well, or partner/merge with someone else to go vertical. Anyways, that canada goose outlet online uk is very long term shit; but something to keep in the back of our minds.How will Intel canada goose outlet winnipeg ever catch up when canada goose outlet michigan TSMC got more revenue from EPYC now. It is going to be incredibly hard now for TSMC to lose the crown as the process will get more and more expensive.

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